No, I’m not crazy.Okay, maybe I’m slightly crazy but let me make my case. I haven’t commented on the republican primaries because I haven’t found them to be all that interesting. Romney is going to be the nominee. Romney was always going to be the nominee. None of the drama that ensues along the way, was every going to be memorable in a long lasting way.
The primaries weren’t interesting to me until now. They got interesting when Newt reverted back to the Newt we all know and loathe. But that alone didn’t do it. The emergence of the old, loathsome Newt combined with an infusion of $5 million dollars (to help him amplify his hatefulness) is what has peaked my interest. Newt is determined to implement a scorched earth campaign on Romney. He’s going to leave Mitt as bloody and bruised as his funds will allow.
Here’s why that’s interesting; republican primaries are not set up as “winner take all” elections. So if a candidate wins the primary in a state with 39% of the vote, they don’t get all of the delegates for that state. They get a percentage of delegates that is roughly proportionate to the percentage they won the state by. If Mitt Romney keeps “winning” each state by getting less than 50% of the votes, he won’t have 51% of the delegates and will not be the nominee. He would have to go to one of the other candidates that have the percentage of delegates that he needs to broker some kind of deal with them, in exchange for giving him their delegates.
We can safely assume that Santorum, Perry, and Huntsman will be out after South Carolina. I have a feeling that Paul is staying in until the end, which makes Gingrich the determining factor in Romney’s fate. If Gingrich can hang in until super Tuesday, he sets up Ron Paul as the “king maker” that Romney will have to deal with to get the delegates he needs to be the nominee. That’s a big “if”. Right now, Gingrich’s campaign is being fueled by one single donor that, thanks to citizen’s united, stuffed his PAC with $5 million dollars. $5 million goes a long way in South Carolina because it’s such a small media market with relatively cheap air time. If he can’t get more money, he won’t make it beyond South Carolina. But if Gingrich makes it to super Tuesday, he will be siphoning those votes away from Romney. If Paul can keep getting 20% – 25%, that puts Romney at less that 50% in a lot of primaries.
Gingrich won’t make it all the way to the end for a couple of reasons. First off, his vitriol and arrogance will most definitely gaffe him out of the race. Secondly, he’s going to need several fairy Godmothers to “PAC” him $500 million dollars. Before citizen’s united, that would have been impossible. As it stands now, he has a small chance. He’s also got the party elders gunning for him, so he won’t be raising any funds through traditional means. Karl Rove seems to be on a war path against Gingrich.
So if all of that happens (I’m not saying it’s likely, but this is fun!), then Ron Paul ends up with the delegates that Romney needs. These deals are obviously usually centered around getting the Vice Presidential slot. I don’t believe that Ron Paul has the slightest interest in being the VP on the ticket. Plus, he’s older than god. I don’t think that reminiscing about his play dates with Jesus are going to play well with voters.
No, he’s going to deal for his miscreant son that no one likes. Hence, my theory that Vice President Rand Paul may be an ugly, ugly reality we may face just as we’re feeling safe that the republican car has passed us by.