We are now in week 4 of Trump’s impeachmentpalooza. I’m not sure if anyone noticed, but Mitch McConnell was hiding out in Dick Cheney’s underground bunker for the first 3 weeks. Since then, he’s only let his nose poke out of his shell but he hasn’t made any declarative statements. More notably, he hasn’t made a full-throated defense of his Douchenfûhrer. Mitch McConnell has never been one to shy away from a fight, and he’s not a person who gives a damned about sounding like a hypocrite. His absence through this process is very telling as to what he’s doing.
He’s been furiously negotiating a resignation deal with Trump. To be clear, I’m not making any sort of predictions about what Trump is going to do. I’m simply stating that I’m positive about what Mitch McConnell is doing.
20 republican senators are up for reelection in 2020. There’s no way in hell McConnell is going to allow his members to go on record voting either for or against impeachment if he can help it. 3 of those 20 who are up for reelection are definitely going to lose their seats. 1 more is very vulnerable and yet another is vulnerable. Even Joni Ernst is freaking the fuck out about her reelection prospects. Safe republican seats suddenly aren’t so safe. As impeachment and removal becomes more popular among the American people, allowing a vote makes the situation even more untenable for McConnell. Let me repeat: he is not going to allow a vote on impeachment to happen on his watch.
I’m not going to speculate on how McConnell’s negotiations with Trump are going because that would be pure speculation on my part, and there isn’t a ton of evidence to follow. I will say this though: we’re in week 4 so I imagine that as with most negotiations, they’ve moved from the carrot phase and on to the stick. Yesterday, McConnell was asked about Trump’s assertion that they had discussed the infamous July 25th call with Zelensky. Trump’s claim is that McConnell agreed that it was a perfect call. When asked, McConnell said that he and Trump had never discussed the call. Uh-oh. Big uh-oh. The senate majority leader distancing himself from the centerpiece of an impeachment inquiry against the leader of his party is a yuuuuuuggggge tell.
I imagine that negotiations started with offers of immunity and promises that Trump can keep his fake wealth. Now that we’re in week 4, it’s clear that Trump isn’t playing ball. So now we’re on to the “we’re going to impeach you” stage of the game. For the first part of this week, Trump seemed to be obsessed with the idea that republicans must stick together. Why would this be of concern? Republicans always stick together. Ever since Reagan, they’ve spoken with one voice. So why is Trump worried? Because McConnell is telling him to be worried. This purely a bluff on McConnell’s part because let me repeat: he is not going to let his members go on record for a vote either against or for impeachment if it’s in his power to stop it.
This is going to end in a resignation, and it’s going to happen soon. If Trump were smart (I know, I know) or had a rational friend in the world (I know, I know) he would resign before the house impeaches. I suspect that’s going to happen in the next 2 weeks. If he waits until after that happens, McConnell is going to beat him with all the sticks in order to secure a resignation and avoid a vote in the senate. At that point, the thing to look out for is GOP senators saying the “i” word to the press. That will be a pressure tactic by McConnell. So far, we haven’t heard a single republican senator utter the word “impeach”. When we do, you know that McConnell is going hard.
There is potentially one way this can all go sideways. Again, remember that McConnell is going to do anything he can to avoid a vote. Anything. It is customary for the house to vote on whether to start an impeachment inquiry. It’s not a formal rule, but it’s always been done. Nancy didn’t do that, and she claims that she doesn’t have to. She didn’t hold a vote because she’s trying to protect 6 vulnerable members of her caucus from losing their reelection bids in 2020. I am fucking furious about this. Fuck politics. This is about saving our country. But not for Nancy, who never wanted to impeach in the first place.
By not holding that vote, McConnell may have an avenue to claim that the impeachment vote in the house isn’t legitimate. This is a really inane move on Pelosi’s part because the members she’s protecting have to vote to impeach in a matter of days or weeks. So while she is probably correct when she asserts that she doesn’t need to hold a vote to open an impeachment inquiry, that doesn’t mean that she isn’t leaving the door cracked open for McConnell to barrel through and get what he wants. Remember, it is also customary for the senate to hold confirmation hearings when there’s a Supreme Court vacancy. McConnell stole a SCOTUS seat, so I’m pretty confident that he’s finding ways to nullify a house impeachment vote.
Either way, this impeachment process is going to end soon. I just hope that Pelosi doesn’t manage to out bungle Trump.
