Generally speaking, I am not an expert on foreign affairs which is why when a foreign affairs issue arises, I take a few days to listen to different perspectives from people who I consider to be knowledgeable and reasonable in this area. “knowledgeable” and “reasonable” are conclusions I make by observing someone’s track record. If they’re right more than they’re wrong and if they admit to it when they’re wrong, I consider that person knowledgeable and reasonable. Sounds crazy I know, but I like the old school meritocracy we used to have before people just decided of they “like” someone based in a “feeling”.
It doesn’t take me long to figure out all of the moving parts of the immediate situation at hand. That’s not to say that I always manage to gather all of the historical events that got us here. I sometimes miss those but I’m aware of my shortcomings in this regard. I’ve been soaking up as much information and historical context as I can on the Russia/ Ukraine situation and I’ve changed a number of my opinions over the past week as a result of what I’ve learned.
Now I’m going to share where I’ve landed for now. I’m almost certainly going to learn more in the coming weeks, which means that I will probably rethink some of this, but here are my thoughts today in regard to where we are right now.
It’s clear that this invasion is not going the way Putin expected it to go. He really believed that Russian troops were going to be able to sail into Ukraine and take all of the major cities in a day (maybe two). He also believed that Russian troops would be “greeted as liberators” (to quote Don Rumsfeld). Basically, he thought it was going to go the way Crimea went.
Because it didn’t, he has already lost in spectacular fashion. To be clear, I’m 100% positive that Russian troops will eventually take every city in Ukraine if they press on, but they’ve already lost on so many levels.
First off, the mystique of the powerful Russian army had been badly damaged. Social media has effectively dispelled that myth by posting pictures of bombed out tanks and Russian troops surrendering. So that’s pretty bad for Putin.
Next, this invasion has turned Zelinsky into an international hero. He has expertly used social media to his advantage. That video of himself on the streets of Kyiv as Russian troops are barreling toward them was remarkable. By contrast, Putin is so scared and paranoid that he never walks down any street in any Russian city for any reason on any normal day when nothing is gong on. It’s true. He’s always cocooned by his security detail in very controlled environments. Zelinsky looks like a fucking superhero by comparison. And then there’s the heartfelt appeal he made to the EU for help. No experienced politician could have brought powerful people with competing interests to tears and motivated them to action the way he did. Ukraine’s entry into the EU has been fast tracked thanks to Zelinsky. The more heroic Zelinsky is, the more of a supervillain Putin has become.
Lastly, Putin has accomplished the opposite of what he set out to accomplish.
Before I get into my take, I want to share a really great analysis that I ultimately ended up disagreeing with. In this episode of This Is Revolution, Pascal Robert makes some great points in defense of Putin’s actions by giving historical context and a perspective I didn’t have.
I encourage you to listen to the whole episode. I promise it will make you smarter. I ended up rejecting his argument because I don’t consider Putin to be a legitimately elected leader of Russia, and am therefore not compelled by Putin’s ideas for Russia. Also, I do believe that Zelinsky was legitimately elected so what may or may not have happened to lead up to his election is irrelevant since he’s a more legitimate leader than Putin is in my mind.
Let’s leave the “denazification” nonsense behind us and focus on Putin’s real goals. He’s been against NATO for decades. He ultimately wants to see NATO disbanded completely, but his goal since 2014 has been to make sure that Ukraine is never admitted into NATO. This stated goal is really a proxy for keeping Ukraine from officially becoming part of the “west”. He wants Ukraine to be part of Russia again. That’s really what he wants. He wants to bring back the Soviet Union without the “union” part. Think of the Soviet Union like the United States.Yes, it was one block but each individual “state” had some autonomy. He has no use for that part so he wants all of what used to be the Soviet Union to become Russia. For the past several years, I have been moving more toward the idea that NATO should be disbanded. Ironically, what Putin has done here makes a great case for the need for NATO so he’s managed to strengthen NATO.
I don’t find Putin’s “[insert name of country he wants to invade and occupy here] is ethnically Russian” argument compelling at all. Quebec manages to live with Canada, and New Yorkers somehow coexist with Floridians so “ethnicity” does not a legitimate claim make in this instance.
Putin wants his legacy to be that he brought the band back together. That’s it. That’s why he’s doing all of this.
I have never thought that he was crazy. In fact, I’ve always thought of him as an evil genius but I think that his narcissism combined with his intolerance of hearing any advice that may stand in the way of making his legacy fantasies come true have made him crazy.
He’s backed into a corner now, which makes him very dangerous. The US and the EU (as well as a number of other countries in the world) have done precisely the right things so far. I thought that Biden and the EU were playing softball in the beginning, but that changed very quickly. Removing Russia’s access to SWIFT and seizing all of the assets of Russian oligarchs’ assets is exactly the right amount of pressure to apply here.
All of the talk about no-fly zones and arming an insurgency in Ukraine is insane and inane. A no-fly zone doesn’t just mean that we say, “You can’t fly here” so Russia doesn’t. It means shooting down Russian planes and starting a world war with Russia. As Putin was quick to point out when things started going bad for him; he’s got nukes. We don’t want a war with Russia.
Arming an insurgency that could last years is equally moronic because it means that more people on both sides will die. As I said, Ukraine is going to fall to Russia if Russia presses forward. That’s just a foregone conclusion. These sanctions and seizures are going to work because they’re putting pressure on the people who need to be pressured. Yes, average working class Russians are also suffering but the pain is (unlike most sanction situations) being shared by the obscenely wealthy and powerful.
If Putin takes Kyiv tomorrow, he won’t be able to hold it because the Russian economy can’t hold on. When Switzerland joined the party and agreed to freeze Russian assets in their banks, that was the last nail in Putin’s coffin. The fact that China seems to be backing away is very bad news for him. The last ally he has left is Saudi Arabia. That’s just not going to save him.
This talk of “taking Putin out” is beyond insane because it ignores all of the (let’s just go back to here) history of the past 100 years. When we depose foreign leaders, things go very wrong for us. No, Russians need to deal with Putin themselves. Or not, but it’s up to them.
Nothing would make me happier than to get rid of Putin but I’ve learned lessons from the past. He can’t be gotten rid of from the outside. No, that needs to happen from the inside or not at all and anyone who suggests otherwise needs to take a look at almost the entirety of the middle east to see how getting rid of their leaders has worked out.
As far as the rest of the world goes, we need to find a way to offer Putin an exit ramp that allows him to save face. It’s the only way out that I can see. I don’t think that any part of Ukraine should be on that exit ramp. Ceding more territory is just going to empower him the way Crimea did. I don’t know that that exit ramp looks like. Zelinsky already stated that he doesn’t plan on pursuing membership in NATO. I’m 100% certain that Macron was tasked with doing exactly that during their meeting and that Putin didn’t take what was offered. I don’t know what can be offered or what he would accept, but I do know that cornering him even more isn’t likely to turn out well unless there’s a coup within his intelligence agencies and military that would stop him from launching nukes.
