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The Impeachment Calculus

Okay, I just realized this title sounds like the name of a Big Bang Theory episode, but it fits so I’m not going to change it.

I’m seeing a lot of dead wrong punditry around republican senators and their incentives to do the right thing. I’m specifically referring to the analysis of the vulnerable 5: McSally, Gardner, Collins, Ernst, and Tillis. 3 of those are almost certainly going to lose their seats (Collins, Gardner, and McSally). Now, they’re not certain they’re going to lose their seats but they are, and it doesn’t matter anyway. They’re just trying to make it to November.

The vulnerable 5 know that they will face democratic challengers in November. They also know that democrats aren’t going to vote for them under any circumstances. There’s nothing they can do about that, and that’s not what they’re thinking about in terms of their impeachment ruling decisions.

They’re thinking about primary challenges from the right. That’s all they’re thinking about. The filing deadlines to run for a US senate seat are in March. So for the next approximately 6 weeks, that’s what’s top of mind for vulnerable republican senators.

So the ones that everyone thinks we have the most leverage over, are actually the ones we have the least leverage on.

I don’t want to be a downer, or to kill hope but we don’t have any leverage here. Thinking that we do, and expending energy on this is a waste of time.

Our efforts should be focused on primary races, particularly in Colorado where Gardner is almost certainly going to lose. We have control over who he’s going to lose to. There are 2 people running on the democratic side.

There’s John Hickenlooper who decided to settle for the Colorado senate seat when no one in America was interested in hearing his corporate loving pitch in the presidential primary. John Hickenlooper is a wholly owned subsidiary of the fracking industry. His nickname is actually John Frackenlooper. Don’t believe me? Believe him:

Trust me when I tell you that electing Hickenlooper isn’t going to be much of an improvement over Gardner.

But there is a really good progressive in the race. His name is Andrew Romanoff. He was killing it in the polls against Gardner before Frackenlooper came in with all of his fracking industry money and establishment democratic support.

Please take a hard look at him if you live in Colorado. If you don’t, take a look at him and consider making a donation to his campaign. He’s getting killed by corporate money.

Just flipping the seat isn’t enough, as we’ve all learned from the Joe Manchin debacle (Brett Kavanaugh was very grateful for that flip). We need to flip the seat in a way that’s actually going to help working class Americans, and I truly believe that Romanoff is the candidate for that job. I am certain that Hickenlooper will be another Manchin, who we now apparently pat on the head when he actually does the right thing.

I will be posting a list of primary candidates and links to their websites for your perusal in the next few days. These primary races are very important, as AOC taught us that. They should not go unnoticed.

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