COVID-19, which is somewhat inaccurately currently being referred to as “coronavirus”. Just so that you know, coronavirus is a term that refers to a specific type of virus that was first detected in the 60s. It refers to a group of RNA viruses. RNA virus are really bad because they evolve quickly. I’m not going to get much more into the scientific because for one thing, I don’t totally have a grip on it since I’m not a scientist and this is not my wheelhouse.
I mention this because social media has been abuzz with posts of pictures of Lysol cans that say it kills coronavirus. Yeah, not this coronavirus.
Anyway, back to the point I want to make. We currently have the highest coronavirus mortality rate in the world.
This is largely true because of how woefully unprepared the Trump administration has been, and continues to be in responding. South Korea has so far tested 140,000 people, and are testing 10,000 people per day. The US has only tested a total of 2,000 people.
Do these numbers mean that COVID-19 is more lethal in the US than anywhere else? No. What they tell me is that the number of cases being discovered is grossly underrepresented due to lack of testing, which artificially inflates the mortality rate. I suspect the mortality rate is going to be much closer to what South Korea is reporting, than what the US, China, Italy, and Iran are reporting. Italy seems to have been ambushed by this very contagious virus because it’s a very big tourist destination. I suspect their mortality rate is going to plummet now that they’ve detected the virus.
The good news is that the mortality rate for the flu is .6% so it’s possible that COVID-19 isn’t much more deadly than the flu. It’s too soon to tell, but it’s not really possible to artificially deflate the mortality rate (without intentionally cooking the books) so I’m optimistic about the figures coming out of South Korea.
I think it’s safe to assume that we have COVID-19 cases all across the country, and not just in states where cases have been confirmed. The shortage of testing that’s happening is a giant problem right now, but we also have other problems that will keep us near the top of the mortality rate in perpetuity.
The only effective way to stop the spread of the virus is quarantine. Even if you get tested and are confirmed to have it, there isn’t much of anything that doctors can do in the way of treatment. They can put you in a ventilator if you’re very sick, but there’s not much else they can do. Literally the only way to save lives, is to minimize exposure.
Your local emergency room still does not have the ability to test you. Only state labs have those testing kits and labs set up to do the testing. They’re being rolled out slowly, and I’m hearing that they’re going to start getting to hospitals by next week. A few NYC hospitals are starting to get the testing kits, but it’s going to be a week or so before they can get their facilities set up to use them. NY state, which is fertile ground for pandemics is only testing 500 people per day. We have 16 million people living in just NYC. So what they’re doing is only sending high risk people to get tested because they don’t have the capacity to test everyone. That means that there are probably hundreds or even thousands of 20 – 50 year olds who have the virus and are walking around, and infecting others.
But even if we get testing rates up to where they should be, we’re still America. We’re still a culture where almost 30 million people don’t have health insurance. On top of that, the average deductible in the US is $1,655 per year. If you’re on an ACA plan (that’s about another 15 million people), your premiums are subsidized, but your deductible is $4,358 per year so that’s basically like having no insurance.
Our shit insurance system has created a culture where people don’t go to the doctor. Over half of Americans don’t go to the doctor because they can’t afford it. So if we have a vaccine next year, a huge percentage of Americans won’t go to get tested because they can’t afford it.
If you don’t think that we need Medicare For All right now, you haven’t really thought things through. And keeping this crap ACA program in place isn’t cutting it unless you’re a shareholder in a health insurance or pharmaceutical company in which case, it hasn’t dipped into your profit margin at all.
On top of the healthcare issues, a huge chunk of our work force can’t self quarantine even if they do get sick because they don’t get paid time off. Japan is now paying parents $80 a day to keep their kids home from school. That makes sense. Nothing like that will ever be implemented in America cause, SOCIALISM!
So to summarize: The good news is that COVID-19 is probably not as bad as you think it is. The bad news is that these viruses and antibiotic resistant bacteria are increasingly going to turn into global health issues and America is always going to be a petri dish that never really gets sanitized.
